The Long Tail speaks at length of the death of the hit. No more will the hit movie, DVD, CD or single reap such huge reward as we've grown accustomed to. Chris Anderson cites the best all-time one week sales of NSYNC's No Strings Attached in March of 2000 as the last of the big hits. Anderson does good to not shut the door on hits entirely. We all have examples of mega-movies and singles that pulled in huge box office scores. Avatar (2009) and The Dark Knight (2008) come to mind immediately. Avatar did over $300 million in one week, while The Dark Knight pulled in over $600 million just in the United States.
So the hit is not dead just wounded and may never recover. We've seen the effects of the Long Tail first and foremost in music. Peer to peer networks which enabled easy file sharing started it off. Napster did its part and the music industry was changed forever. Considering that only a very small fraction of music ever makes it onto store shelves it's not surprising that presenting consumers with more variety would produce this effect. Variety enables consumers to stray away from the hits in a brick and mortar store to sounds that reflect their taste more closely. As Anderson says, "..suddenly the hit gives way to the micro hit...top 40 now becomes top 40,000 or 400,000..)
For media products, this move makes perfect sense even today. With the internet freely (so to speak) available and electronic storage costs so low any product that can be delivered electronically can also be stocked regardless of expected sales. Anderson explains that there are three levels of retailers or "Three steps to infinite variety." Physical stores such as Tower Records, which sees a profit cut-off point for items which do not move a minimum of units. Hybrid retailers such as Amazon offer both worlds by leveraging physical warehouse storage space, fast shipping as will as electronic storage and delivery wherever possible.
Pure digital retailers like Rhapsody are able to take full advantage of the head and tail through non-existent additional overhead costs for carrying products (music in this case) quite a ways down the tail. Large retailers are beginning to understand the power of this concept and are moving towards a hybrid approach. For Example Target and Walmart now offer a much larger variety of products on their websites than you find in their stores.
Another excellent concept that Anderson writes about is the Long Tail theory in shaping company or product image. The typical consumer will no longer simply wander into their nearest Sears to buy a new washer and dryer. They first Google it. The top hits that Google returns to them will more than likely help shape their purchase decision. The example that Anderson uses speaks of "Dell Hell." We can still see the effects of a single person's blog shaping the public image of computer retail giant, Dell. In the words of Anderson,"The ants have megaphones."
Anita Elberse offers an opposing viewpoint in her Harvard Business review article, Should you invest in the Long Tail? Elberse cites sales information from Rhapsody and Quickflix to say that the tail continues to grow longer and flatter. This leads to the conclusion that marketing and sales teams everywhere should not shift focus away from the "Hit" to the "Long Tail". While I agree that all focus should not drift away from the mainstream, it still stands to reason that we should remain aware of the long tail and work to exploit it. There is no denying that the bulk of sales for many companies that are quite a way down the tail are still in the head. With that said though, Rhapsody cannot ignore the tail that accounts for 20-25% of sales.
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